Chaffing under public ridicule in the US as well as internationally for having 'lost' the war, Trump is under immense pressure to do something, cautions Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
US President Donald Trump on Sunday announced that the American Navy will henceforth block all maritime traffic entering the Strait of Hormuz.
Both sides have now revealed a preference for escalation over strategic defeat, and each new provocation narrows the space for the next pause. The Touska seizure, Iran's refusal to negotiate under blockade, Israel's strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure -- all of these add up to an increasingly untenable situation. This makes the wild card -- Trump and his motormouth -- more consequential than ever, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War.
The pause gives the US time to breathe, to regroup, to move its expeditionary force into position without risk of interception along the way. It gives Iran nothing -- on the ground, attacks against its infrastructure continue apace. Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
'In such a scenario, Iran could proclaim itself victor, rebuild, re-enforce its diminished regional proxies to further destabilise neighbouring nations and take control of the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.'
Trump may strike. He may announce productive talks and extend again. He may do both at the same time. Iran will not open the Strait on someone else's terms, so no matter what happens, that problem will remain unsolved. And the IRGC will still be collecting its $2 million toll from every ship bold enough to ask permission to pass.
The LPG squeeze on India's restaurant sector is the quotidian face of a deeper crisis.
One must wonder whether Mr Modi's efforts to wine and dine the Big Two of today's world were seen as a sign of weakness rather than a proffered arm of friendship, points out R Jagannathan.
'Was the five-day pause ever meant to hold, or was it simply another instrument of signaling, of positioning, of buying time in a war where even the pauses are tactical?' asks Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Trump has made it clear: the US will not lift its blockade of Iranian ports until a deal is signed.
This weekend, Donald Trump has begun to say the quiet part out loud -- that he wants to take control of Iran's oil, a formulation more in line with his robber-baron style of international relations.
The core issues to be settled -- access to Hormuz, Israel's aggression in Lebanon, the question of Iran's nuclear programme, sanctions relief and compensation -- are thorny enough to require weeks of patient negotiation. The most likely outcome of the opening sessions is that both sides take the measure of each other, establish what is and is not negotiable, and return home without having broken anything. That would count as progress.
The ceasefire is still technically holding, to the extent that no overt hostilities have been reported yet, but the rhetoric has hardened dangerously. The week ahead will also clarify whether the Islamabad failure was a negotiating tactic or whether Washington has genuinely locked itself into a position from which the only exits are climb-down, escalation, or the slow bleed of a new status quo that nobody chose and nobody controls. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
The question is whether the clocks allow enough time for two deeply mistrustful sides to get there, and whether the surface calm holds long enough for the paddling to produce something before the ceasefire ends on April 22, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War.
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has criticised Prime Minister Narendra Modi's foreign policy and his remarks referencing the COVID-19 pandemic in relation to the West Asia situation.
Pakistan launched a retaliatory operation, 'Ghazab lil Haq,' against the Afghan Taliban following alleged border attacks, resulting in reported casualties and destruction of Taliban infrastructure.
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
'It is best to remain vigilant. Tarique Rahman arranged arms smuggling to Indian insurgent groups.' 'He has criticised India for sheltering Sheikh Hasina, but has also sought India's support.'
By appearing to privilege ideological affinity over strategic balance, India risks eroding the trust painstakingly built across West Asia. Once the perception takes hold that India's friendship is conditional and transactional, rebuilding credibility will be difficult, warns Amberish K Diwanji.
India's handling of the Iran crisis reflects a growing strain between strategic autonomy and geopolitical alignment, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'China continues to perceive its relations with India through the prism of India-US relations, with the US using India to counter balance against China in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.'
Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi stated that Afghanistan achieved its objectives in the border skirmish against Pakistan and stopped the attack following requests from Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. He emphasized dialogue and diplomacy as the preferred methods for resolving issues.
The United States, which entered this war in expectation of a short, sharp win along the Venezuela model, is now preparing for deeper involvement in a conflict it does not fully control, without the allies it typically relies on, against an adversary that is not behaving as expected, in a global environment that is already absorbing economic shock. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
India and the US have entered a new phase in their relationship, marked by greater parity, point out Harsh V Pant and Vivek Mishra.
'As one former Indian diplomat put it to me, Delhi has access to the White House, but Islamabad has access to Mar-a-Lago.'
'The BNP's election manifesto lists grievances against India, mirroring the attitude of past BNP governments.' 'Political parties have been careful not to say bad things about China.'
What began as a mentor-protege relationship between UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has now evolved into a broader contest over influence, strategy, and leadership in the Middle East, points out Asif Ullah Khan.
Gor also announced that India will be a member of the Pax Silica alliance.
'The time has come to let cricket's oldest rivalry occur naturally, not by design.'
'Pakistan has found itself in a favourable position after Operation Sindoor by appreciating the mediation as claimed by Trump and recommending him for the Nobel Peace Prize.'
'During the 5-day visit, Amir Khan Muttaqi would have, conceivably, bumped into our powerful security agencies one way or another and some interaction would have ensued, which, in turn, can lead to future dealings.' 'Indeed, this will be the one crucial template of the Indo-Afghan relationship that Pakistan will be monitoring closely,' points Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The report describes the Pahalgam terror attack orchestrated by Pakistan as 'deadly insurgent attack that killed 26 civilians in India's contested Jammu and Kashmir region.'
Venezuelan opposition leader Mara Corina Machado presented a Nobel Peace Prize to former US President Donald Trump, who hailed it as a gesture of mutual respect. The meeting occurred after reported US military action in Venezuela.
Sharif waited for over 40 minutes, visibly impatient, before joining the meeting and staying for just 10 minutes.
India has called for a ceasefire, release of all hostages, and peaceful resolution of the Israel-Hamas conflict through dialogue and diplomacy. The Centre informed Parliament that India welcomed the agreement on the first phase of the Gaza Peace Plan. The article also covers India's energy sourcing strategy and the release of Indian fishermen by Pakistan.
For too long has Pakistan gotten away with running with the terrorists and hunting with the forces. This duplicity needs to end, asserts Saisuresh Sivaswamy.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar asserts India's right to defend against terrorism from 'bad neighbours' while highlighting India's support for friendly nations.
If Xi Jinping can establish control over the PLA Ground Force, relations between India and China will settle down to an even keel. The next few weeks will show whether Xi has finally succeeded in gaining control over the PLA Ground Force. That could bring about the substantive shift in India-China relations that both our leaders have been working for, observes Ambassador Prabhat Shukla.
Khaleda Zia, the former Prime Minister of Bangladesh and a dominant figure in the country's politics, has died at the age of 80 after a prolonged illness. Her career spanned decades and included periods of both power and controversy.
'The background for the Saudi-Pakistan agreement is the fact that the regional security order has collapsed due to the Israeli attack on Doha.' 'The Americans have largely abandoned their security guarantee for West Asia and the region has no choice but to look at alternatives.'
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